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Post by Ethan / JRyan on Aug 17, 2018 21:37:43 GMT -5
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Post by Ethan / JRyan on Aug 17, 2018 23:01:12 GMT -5
*** Originally a thread on the Hub. There were multiple versions of it but this was the last one....it was a sticky there are one time. Wednesday, 07/18/18 09:49:11 PM *** Original LinkZion Oil * // Possible Pricing // Shareholder Value
All of this is on the premise that Zion Oil and Gas has found Oil, I can not guess very well if the find is Natural gas but a good idea would be 1/8th of the Oil size. I have read 1/6th so I will use 1/8th to be conservative.
I use a find of 1 Billion barrels in my calculations for the most part.
First we look at how other companies are valued. There are many things like cost of the barrel out of the ground. It will be almost impossible to get these values right for many reasons, but most of all is it is in Israel, not Texas. Laws are different and especially the environmental ones, as heard from the shareholders meeting.
This is good to have and is around 1MB, so as not to large. US oil and gas reserves study 2017The original Post with this information was here:
Valuation and Reserves - Hard Data
That was one method, another was good ol Excel and some good information and maybe good guesswork. I know I have posted many screenshots, but I thought I would let you modify it or add to it if you like. I was apprehensive about uploading an excel file but I see no other way. Please use your AV to check it, it is clean as far as I know as I just modified my original and uploaded it.  With this one can see that even a 50 million barrel field will make be a winner!! Link to spreadsheet so you can play with the numbers and make adjustments if needed....Excel Zion Oil Excel SpreadsheetJust click and download and AV check if you want. The important thing and I do not want to leave this out even though I think it highly unlikely, but with Him in charge all things are possible. What if it is larger, VERY much larger?
Here you will get an idea of what the big boys are, these are the companies with billions of barrels of reserves. Note: this is not tens of billions as that becomes nation size. Examples being Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, & Norway for just a few.  Being realistic and the engineer in me talking, what if the HOLE is dry?
Zion's shares drop quiet low, guessing near the dollar level. Then they will try and raise more capital and drill again. I will most likely not be a part of that one except for my original 100 shares. News is not as forthcoming as in the past and as we have discussed on here, there could be a multitude of reasons.Of course with the SEC news, we now know a little more about why the deliberate silence. Worry not though, we know that ZN will come out of this fine. Refinement is not a bad thing sometimes. I too think it a spiritual attack. If this company did not have the founding principles it does, a Christian one, there is no doubt the attacks would be far less in my opinion.
That being said, I am not worried about it as I do think they have crude oil now. That is why I have 4X the shares I have ever had. That is my gut... UPDATE:
Let's see, when estimates were being made they were made considering proven reserves (What I think they are working on right now btw).
The reason it is where it is at, say $3.33 is because there is a huge upside if oil in commercial quantities have been found. Of course it was closer to $4 until the shenanigans started and the SEC soon sent Zion a letter and is now a stock that is 10% shorted, but that is for another day. Here is a post with more information on this topic. Summary Review of the SEC Inquiry and the Active Shorting of Zion Stock One of the things that was said was that our company was paying their executives too much. I do not think that is what the SEC is after but with attacks, who knows. Anyhow the pay thing was debunked fairly quickly here: Executive Pay and Zion Oil Possible Pricing and Calculations Where do these figures come from? They are only guesstimates from someone (me), no guarantees at all. The numbers are there and the spreadsheet is above. Play with them and see what you can some up with. In comparisons with companies with the 1 Billion barrels (decided be me to meet the stated goals of the company) not by Zion or anyone else. There is a way to at least get a ballpark figure. It has been calculated many ways and of course it is all subjective but in the ballpark comes to some point of reasonableness. Of course I am using West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and not Brent. I will use WTI for now as Brent is even more! <> COM Brent Crude (ICE) I wonder which Zion has agreed to sell by if they sell oil. My vote is WTI as the company is based in Texas. I also hope it is light, sweet Crude. The good stuff. Givot's was listed as: I do not know what that means. Maybe someone can elaborate.
Now the question was asked, "What happens if we hit a big one?" This is a very legit question and I had thought that we could borrow the funds to drill the next wells from the exiting derrick site. I think we could do up to four from that location.
I did not want any more share dilution. When I first came on board, there were only 10 million shares. There are now roughly 60 million shares. I thought that should be the path.
Then someone posted this, and I think it is a much better idea for long term shareholder value. So as you can see, that just plain makes sense! The more I think about it, a $15 share price and a 5 million share offering doesn't really dilute the shareholders that much, less than 10%, yet it would raise over $75 million dollars. What would that get us? I think the 4 extra wells and possibly a drilling rig of our own.
Still, at only $10 a share that is still $50 million to develop what we need to. What about cash flow?
I would guess somewhere around $10 million a month (5000 bpd). If we take that out to a quarter, then you have $30 million in cash flow. Of course at some point there would be dividends. If we take 1/2 of that for investors, that is $1 a year or so if my math is right. Of course the share price would be up there also. I am just not sure how one would calculate that. I am sure we would be fine.
Another thing, skeptics say there is no oil, well that is just not true. Some of you might not have heard of Givot Olam. Well they found oil. Here is a quick summary: Givot Olam Information With Zion quiet now, I seem to remember that the last wells were not like this. I know nothing more, just a hunch I guess. Its the little things that grab me now..
Like this: Why post this? If one cannot say anything for what ever reason, I think there was a message here. One of hope and one of joy!
 What a nice day it will be if something like this was announced, 
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Post by brothersinc on Aug 20, 2018 19:58:10 GMT -5
Hopefully a miracle in pr comes sooner than later. Just a tough set of circumstances. Our only hope is in God which is a good place to be in the big picture. Just the way He would have it. May not fit the charts tho.
I was getting car fixed and customer shared about having one expensive quart of oil from his last oil investment. I had to laugh.
God will make everything right again. Hopefully in this life and certainly in the next! Be blessed today! |
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Post by Ethan / JRyan on Aug 20, 2018 20:43:58 GMT -5
This lead post was attacked on Yahoo last night. The claim was I was posting here the price of Zion Oil and such pumping the stock. I had said it was old information and then the date of my post here was posted on the Hoo as a fresh post (8/17/2018). Their goal was deception as usual. What is neat is this sticky actually was posted a few times on the Hub. It changed many times. It began here: Friday, 06/15/18 11:54:33 AMand then moved to here 07/18/18 09:49:11 PMI like it when I catch them lying and call them out on it. This was speculation on what could the share price go to based on found reservoir size. That has not changed. What we need is some good news on what is in that hole and its surrounding geology. |
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